Price Expectation Report – Feb '19
blog-header-7

Price Expectation Report – Feb '19

Mark Armstrong

BY MARK ARMSTRONG

15 March, 2019

 

 

The report is based on data from 36,128 people who sold a property in Australia between April and December 2018 and who left a review on our site.

Again, we asked them one thing. Was your sale price above, in line with, or below your expectations?

It’s a question that cuts to the heart of what matters most as a vendor and paints a picture of how people are feeling across Australia about price in the property market.

It’s also a reflection of the work of good agents, to set realistic expectations then work hard for the best outcome possible.

Price Expectation is an important new perspective on property and agents. Here’s what we found.

 

 

Talking to Your Money, RateMyAgent CEO Mark Armstrong explains what new insight the Price Expectation Report gives to everyone wanting to understand the property market.

 

 

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

  • How the market has changed over 2018
  • Revealing the difference between metro vs regional state-by-state
  • Pinpointing Australia’s happiest and unhappiest regions and local government areas
  • How the price of your home and happiness are linked
  • In depth data state-by-state data in each region and local government area

 

 

QUICKLINKS

 

 

 

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

Over the course of 2018 the rising level of unhappiness, declining happiness and declining net happiness is very clear.

 

 

The national picture

 

 

graph 1b

 

Cross referencing Price Expectation data with Core Logic’s Price Growth data in Q4 shows the correlation between rising price happiness and rising price growth.

 


chart 2

(back to top^)

 

STATE BY STATE

chart 4

chart 4b

 

 

The latest quarter of data reveals significant differences between states, with Tasmania achieving the highest net positive score and Western Australia the lowest. 

 

 

chart 3 

 

chart 3b

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

The picture that Price Expectation gives us at a state level is in line with the much reported tightening occurring in some markets.

 

Reviewing the year state-by state;

  • Shows the shape of the decline in SA, VIC, QLD, NSW, with volatility evident month to month.
  • While WA shows the lowest level of net above expectations it is above it’s low point in September.
  • TAS is net positive but still demonstrating volatility

 

 

chart 5

 

(back to top^)

 

METRO VS. REGIONAL BY STATE

Drilling down to examine the difference between metro and regional areas by state is very revealing.

  • TAS, SA QLD sellers are happier in metro areas than regional, while VIC, NSW and WA are happier in regional areas then metro.
  • Tasmania has the greatest balance between metro and regional areas, with both performing strongly. Greater Hobart enjoys the highest level of above expectation results nationally by a large margin, and the lowest below expectation results.
  • The extent to which Sydney property pulls down the overall NSW results is clear, regional NSW ranks 6th nationally, while Greater Sydney has the lowest level of net happiness amongst sellers nationally.
  • The issues in Western Australia arise from both metro and regional areas.

 

 

chart 6

 

 

Examining the national picture by metro or regional areas reveals more Australian sellers are currently achieving above expectation results outside the metro areas.

 

 

chart 7

 


Both metro and regional decline over the course of 2018, with the gap potentially widening at the end of the year.

 

 

chart 8

 

 

Cross referencing Price Expectation data with Core Logic’s data for Days on Market shows the correlation between lowering happiness and rising days on market.

 

 

chart 9 

 

chart 9b

 

 

(back to top^)

 

OUR HAPPY PLACES

Australia’s top 10 happiest regions - those sellers achieving the highest net positive results on price expectation.

  • 3 of the top 5 coming from Tasmania.
  • Regional areas represent 7 of the top 10 places.

 

chart 12 

chart 10

 

 

Drilling down further into the regions and looking at local government areas we can see the 10 happiest areas nationally;

  • Clarence in Tasmania is the only area nationally to report no below expectation results
  • Regional areas represent 6 of the top 10, vs 4 for metro
  • TAS and VIC both with 3 in the top 10, SA and NSW with 2 each.

 

chart 11

 

 

 

(back to top^)

 

THE UNHAPPIEST :(

Australia’s top 10 unhappiest regions - those sellers achieving the lowest highest net results on price expectation.

  • NSW dominating with 6 of the top 10 regions (all metro)
  • QLD with 3 and 1 from WA complete the top 10
  • The Hills District in Sydney has the lowest level of net Price Expectation, with Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs having the highest level of below expectation results nationally. 

 chart 15

chart 13

 

 

Drilling down further into local government areas we can see the 10 unhappiest areas nationally for sellers;

 

  • Unsurprisingly, NSW dominating with 7 out of 10 entries, all metro. 2 entries from regional QLD and 1 in metro WA complete the top 10.
  • At this level we see the first examples of more sellers achieving below expectation results than above, showing a net negative price expectation achieved - both examples being in NSW metro.

 

 

chart 14

(back to top^)

 

 

 

 

 

THE PRICE OF YOUR HOME AND HAPPINESS ARE LINKED

Our data shows;

  • The clear correlation between happiness declining as the value of a house increases
  • Decreasing happiness across property values as the year progresses.

 

 

 chart 16b

 

chart 16

 

 

 

(back to top^)

 

 

STATE SNAPSHOTS

 

NEW SOUTH WALES

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

chart 17

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

chart 18

(back to top^)

 

 

 

VICTORIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

chart 19

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

chart 20

(back to top^)

 

 

QUEENSLAND

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

chart 21

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

chart 22

(back to top^)

 

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

chart 23

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

chart 24

(back to top^)

 

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

chart 25

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

chart 26

(back to top^)

 

Looking for an agent? Find who homeowners in your area recommend.

 

Find agents

 

 

AGENT PROMOTER

Create a personalised digital advert in seconds.

EXPLORE AGENT PROMOTER NOW