Price Expectation Report – May '19
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Price Expectation Report – May '19

Mark Armstrong

BY MARK ARMSTRONG

31 MAY, 2019

 

 

This report gives a unique insight into how Australian vendors are feeling about the sale price they achieve. We ask one question, was your sale price above, in line with, or below your expectations?

To make the findings relatable we equate above expectation results with happy vendors, and below expectation results with unhappy vendors.

This quarter’s update is based on more than 14,000 reviews left on ratemyagent.com.au between January and March 2019. The data reveals that;

  • Vendor price expectations have finally moved in reaction to the market.

 

  • The continual decline in vendor satisfaction with sale price, i.e. declining happiness, has stopped this quarter.

 

  • Net happiness (% achieving above expectations less those achieving below expectations) has increased for the first time since we started measuring (June-18), and increased each month.

 

  • The improvement is being seen across all price segments, but most dramatically at the premium end of the market, who are now on par with the mid-market and almost as satisfied as the bottom-end.

 

  • Metro areas have had big improvements and are just as happy as regionals in March. However the picture is very different state-to-state, with regional areas in NSW and VIC significantly happier than their metro cousins, where the market correction has been heaviest.

 

  • By state, Queensland and NSW have enjoyed a bounce since the last quarter

 

  • NSW regions improve since last quarter, especially in metro areas.

 

  • Hobart is the standout performer nationally, the only place with above 50% vendor happiness

 

  • RateMyAgent CEO and co-founder Mark Armstrong said "Vendor price expectations have turned a corner in the first quarter of 2019. Sellers know the new reality and have adjusted with the market. Rising happiness suggests that the reality of the market decline isn't as bad as vendors initially expect. The market gloom is adjusting their expectations too far and the end result is actually better.”

 

 

QUICKLINKS

 

 

 

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

Net happiness has continually increased in Jan, Feb and March.

 

Net happiness by month

 

 

Net happiness by month - chart

 

 

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STATE BY STATE

 

State happiness by quarter

 

 

State happiness by quarter - graph

 

 

 

  • TAS, ACT and SA remain the happiest states, but with lower net scores than last quarter.
  • QLD (+5%) and NSW (+5%) have both improved significantly in net % above this quarter
  • WA remains unchanged vs, the previous quarter at 12% net above, a 2% increase in above expectations results being cancelled out by a 2% increase in below expectation results.
  • Note: minimum 100 reviews so excludes NT

 

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METRO VS. REGIONAL BY STATE

Drilling down to examine the difference between metro and regional areas by state;

  • For most states there is a massive city / regional divide.
  • In NSW and VIC the regions are significantly happier than Metro. The housing correction has been biggest in Sydney and Melbourne so this is expected.
  • In QLD, WA, SA and TAS the cities are happier than metro, significantly so in SA and TAS.

 

 

Net Vendor Happiness By State, Regional vs Metro (%)

 

 

Looking at specific areas;

  • Greater Hobart and Greater Adelaide remain the happiest areas nationally.
  • Greater Hobart is the standout performer nationally, 16% above the next nearest.
  • Regional Victoria and ACT have overtaken Regional Tasmania since the last quarter.
  • Greater Sydney has doubled in net above score to 16%, moving off the bottom of the table, now above Greater Perth and Regional WA.

 

Specific Area - Net Vendor Happiness By State, Regional vs Metro (%)

 

 

Examining the national picture by metro or regional areas reveals that the happiness of metro sellers have improved this quarter, with March data putting them on par for the first time.

 

 

Regional vs Metro areas

 

 

Net happy by metro and regional

 

 

 

THE PRICE OF YOUR HOME AND HAPPINESS

The price of your home and happiness - table

 

The datas shows

  • Happiness increasing most significantly at the top end of the market +9% vs. the previous quarter for homes $1.5m+ and +8% for homes $1 to $1.5m

 

Net happiness by price range

  

 

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OUR HAPPY PLACES

Australia’s top 10 happiest regions - those sellers achieving the highest net positive results on price expectation.

  • Hobart and South-east Tasmania remain the happiest areas nationally.
  • Hobart is the standout winner and the only region with above 50% above expectations
  • Launceston has disappeared from the Top 10, now 23rd nationally.
  • Metropolitan Adelaide jumps to 3rd place from 6th, overtaking Victorian regions of SW, Central Highlands and Goldfields.

 

 

Australia's top 10 happiest regions

 

 

Drilling down further into the regions and looking at local government areas we can see the 10 happiest areas nationally;

  • Clarence in Tasmania remains the happiest, and remains the only area nationally to report no below expectation results. Hobart moves up to 2nd place
  • Moving into the Top 10: Glen Eira (VIC) and Scenic Rim (QLD)
  • Moving out of the top 10: Yass Valley (NSW), Mitcham (SA) & Greater Geelong (VIC)
  • Metro areas have improved significantly this quarter with 7 of the top 10 positions, vs. 4 in the previous quarter.
  • VIC and SA both have 3 in the top 10, TAS 2 and NSW and QLD 1.

 

Australia happiest areas

 

 

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THE UNHAPPIEST :(

Australia’s top 10 unhappiest regions - those sellers achieving the lowest highest net results on price expectation.

  • South West WA worsens significantly to become unhappiest region in Australia (from +9% last quarter)
  • NSW still dominates the top 10 unhappiest with 5 entries (-1 vs. last quarter), WA have 3 (+2 vs last quarter) and QLD and VIC both have 1
  • NSW regions improve compared to last quarter
  • The Hills District moves off top spot (improving +8%), and Southern Sydney off 2nd place (improving +10%).
  • 3 NSW metro regions move out of top 10 (Eastern Suburbs Sydney, North Shore, Inner West)

 

The unhappiest regions in Australia

 

 

Drilling down further into local government areas we can see the 10 unhappiest areas nationally for sellers;

 

  • NSW improved vs. the previous quarter with 4 regions fewer in the Top 10, while VIC has gained 3 and WA 1.
  • 8 new regions in the Top 10 vs. the previous quarter (The Hills and Gladstone remain)
  • There are now no net negative regions (vs. 2 in the previous quarter)

 

Australia Unhappiest areas - graph

 

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STATE SNAPSHOTS

 

NEW SOUTH WALES

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

NSW - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

NSW graph - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

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VICTORIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

VIC - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

VIC graph - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest) 

 

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QUEENSLAND

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

QLD - Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

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WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

WA - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

WA - Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

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SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

SA - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

SA - Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

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TASMANIA

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

TAS - Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

TAS - Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

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